AGI DOOMSDAY CLOCK

Tracking the Countdown to Artificial General Intelligence
11:45

PROGRESS TOWARDS AGI

87 %

MAJOR BREAKTHROUGHS



Natural Language Understanding

GPT-4, Claude, and other LLMs demonstrate human-level text comprehension

2023


Multimodal Learning

Vision, audio, and text understanding in unified models

2024


Code Generation

AI systems writing production-ready code

2023

Reasoning & Planning

Chain-of-thought and multi-step problem solving

In Progress

Embodied Intelligence

Robotics integration with advanced AI

Pending

Self-Improvement

AI systems that can enhance their own capabilities

Pending

CRITICAL ROADBLOCKS TO AGI

Continuous Learning

45%

Ability to learn and update knowledge in real-time without retraining

Long-Term Memory

30%

Persistent memory across sessions and contexts

True Understanding

60%

Moving beyond pattern matching to genuine comprehension

Context Windows

70%

Handling unlimited context and information

Energy Efficiency

25%

Matching human brain's computational efficiency

Generalization

55%

Transfer learning across all domains seamlessly

DEEPMIND AGI LEVELS

1

Emerging

Equal to or somewhat better than an unskilled human

2

Competent

At least 50th percentile of skilled adults

3

Expert

At least 90th percentile of skilled adults

4

Virtuoso

At least 99th percentile of skilled adults

5

Superhuman

Outperforms 100% of humans

6

ASI

Artificial Superintelligence